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Political party strength in U.S. states

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Map of states by PVI (as of the 2020 election)
Map of relative party strengths in each U.S. state after the 2020 presidential election

Political party strength in U.S. states is the level of representation of the various political parties in the United States in each statewide elective office providing legislators to the state and to the U.S. Congress and electing the executives at the state (U.S. state governor) and national (U.S. President) level.

History

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Throughout most of the 20th century, although the Republican and Democratic parties alternated in power at a national level, some states were so overwhelmingly dominated by one party that nomination was usually tantamount to election. This was especially true in the Solid South, where the Democratic Party was dominant for the better part of a century, from the end of Reconstruction in the late 1870s, through the period of Jim Crow Laws into the 1960s. Conversely, the rock-ribbed New England states of Vermont, Maine, and New Hampshire were dominated by the Republican Party, as were some Midwestern states like Iowa and North Dakota.

However, in the 1970s and 1980s the increasingly conservative Republican Party gradually overtook the Democrats in the southeast. The Democrats' support in the formerly Solid South had been eroded during the vast cultural, political, and economic upheaval that surrounded the 1960s. By the 1990s, the Republican Party had completed the transition into the southeast's dominant political party, despite typically having fewer members due to the prevalence of Republican voting generational Democrats. In New England, the opposite trend occurred; the former Republican strongholds of Maine and Vermont became solidly Democratic, as did formerly Republican areas of New Jersey, New York, California, and Connecticut.

In the U.S. state legislative elections of 2010, the Republican Party held an outright majority of 3,890 seats (53% of total) compared to the Democratic party's 3,450 (47% of total) seats elected on a partisan ballot.[1] Of the 7,382 seats in all of the state legislatures combined, independents and third parties account for only 16 members, not counting the 49 members of the Nebraska Legislature, which is the only legislature in the nation to hold non-partisan elections to determine its members. As a result of the 2010 elections, Republicans took control of an additional 20 state legislative chambers, giving them majority control of both chambers in 25 states versus the Democrats' majority control of both chambers in only 17 states, with 7 states having split or inconclusive control of both chambers (not including Nebraska). Before the 2010 elections, it was Democrats who controlled both chambers in 27 states versus the Republican party having total control in only 14 states, with 8 states divided, and Nebraska being nonpartisan.[2]

Since this election, Republicans have maintained a majority of state legislative chambers and seats, as well as governorships nationwide. As of 2024, there are 23 Republican trifectas, 17 Democratic trifectas, and 10 divided governments with both parties holding either legislative chambers or the governorship. However, following the 2022 elections, Democratic trifectas represent a majority of the national population.[3]

Current party strength

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Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

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Another metric measuring party preference is the Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI). Cook PVIs are calculated by comparing a state's average Democratic Party or Republican Party share of the two-party presidential vote in the past two presidential elections to the nation's average share of the same. PVIs for the states over time can be used to show the trends of U.S. states towards, or away from, one party or the other.[4]

Gallup

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On December 17, 2020, Gallup polling found that 31% of Americans identified as Democrats, 25% identified as Republicans, and 41% as Independent.[5] Additionally, polling showed that 50% are either "Democrats or Democratic leaners" and 39% are either "Republicans or Republican leaners" when Independents were asked, "do you lean more to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?"[5]

In 2018, the number of competitive states according to opinion polling dropped down to 10, the lowest number since 2008. From 2017 to 2018, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Pennsylvania moved from competitive to lean Democratic, while West Virginia, Louisiana, and Indiana moved from competitive to lean Republican, and Nebraska moved from lean Republican to competitive.[6]

As of 2018, Massachusetts was the most Democratic state, with 56% of residents identifying as Democrats, while only 27% of residents identified as Republicans. However, it is important to note that Washington D.C. (while not a state) has 3 electoral votes and 76% of residents identify as Democrats, while 6% identify as Republicans. Wyoming was the most Republican state, with 59% of residents identifying as Republican, and only 25% of residents identifying as Democrat.[6]

Partisan lean of U.S. states according to Gallup polling[6]
  Number of U.S. States
Year Solid Dem Lean Dem Competitive Lean GOP Solid GOP Net Dem
2008 29 6 10 1 4 +30
2009 23 10 12 1 4 +28
2010 13 9 18 5 5 +12
2011 11 7 15 7 10 +1
2012 13 6 19 3 9 +7
2013 12 5 19 2 12 +3
2014 11 6 18 5 10 +2
2015 11 3 16 8 12 −6
2016 13 1 15 7 14 −7
2017 15 4 15 3 13 +3
2018 14 8 10 5 13 +4

Voter registration

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The state Democratic or Republican Party controls the governorship, the state legislative houses, and U.S. Senate representation. Nebraska's legislature is unicameral (i.e., it has only one legislative house) and is officially non-partisan, though party affiliation still has an unofficial influence on the legislative process.

The simplest measure of party strength in a state voting population is the affiliation totals from voter registration from the websites of the Secretaries of State or state Boards of Elections for the 30 states and the District of Columbia that allow registered voters to indicate a party preference when registering to vote. 20 states[a] do not include party preference with voter registration. The party affiliations in the party control table are obtained from state party registration figures where indicated.[7]

As of 2024, a plurality of voters in California, Nevada, New Mexico, Louisiana, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, and Maine are Democratic, while a majority of voters in Maryland and Washington DC are Democratic. Meanwhile, a plurality of voters in Arizona, Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Kentucky, West Virginia, and Florida are Republicans. A majority of voters in Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, South Dakota, and Oklahoma are Republicans. In Oregon, Colorado, North Carolina, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Alaska, and New Hampshire, a plurality of voters are Independents. While in Massachusetts, a majority of voters are independents.[8]

Voter Registration Totals[9]
Party name Total
Democratic 48,019,985
Republican 35,732,180
Independent 34,699,567
American Independent 715,712
Libertarian 710,123
Independence Party of New York 388,779
Green 240,198
Independent Party of Florida 195,333
Independent Party of Oregon 134,996
Constitution 131,901
Independent Party of Louisiana 110,653
Peace & Freedom 110,576
Independent American Party 58,331
Working Families 55,352
United Independent 20,976
Alaskan Independence 18,983
Common Sense Party 17,322
New Jersey Conservative 16,104
Independent Party of Delaware 9,807
Socialist Party USA 9,198
Natural Law 6,549
Reform 5,900
Women's Equality 4,468
Approval Voting 4,046
Independent American Party of New Mexico 3,889
Unity 3,215
Better for America 3,180
Oregon Progressive 2,928
Working Class 2,693
United Utah 2,285
Party for Socialism and Liberation 1,369
Bread and Roses 1,127
Ecology Party of Florida 1,108

Party strength by state

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Local and regional political circumstances often influence party strength.

U.S. state party control as of October 2024

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State 2020 presidential
election
Governor State Senate State House Senior
U.S. Senator
Junior
U.S. Senator
U.S. House of Representatives
Alabama Republican Republican Republican 27–8 Republican 76–29 Republican Republican Republican 6–1
Alaska Republican Republican Coalition 17–3[b] Coalition 23–17[b] Republican Republican Democratic 1–0
Arizona Democratic Democratic Republican 16–14 Republican 31–29 Independent[c] Democratic Republican 6–3
Arkansas Republican Republican Republican 29–6 Republican 82–18 Republican Republican Republican 4–0
California Democratic Democratic Democratic 32–8 Democratic 62–18 Democratic Democratic Democratic 40–12
Colorado Democratic Democratic Democratic 23–12 Democratic 46–19 Democratic Democratic Democratic 5–3
Connecticut Democratic Democratic Democratic 24–12 Democratic 98–53 Democratic Democratic Democratic 5–0
Delaware Democratic Democratic Democratic 15–6 Democratic 26–15 Democratic Democratic Democratic 1–0
Florida Republican Republican Republican 28–12 Republican 84–36 Republican Republican Republican 20–8
Georgia Democratic Republican Republican 33–23 Republican 101–79 Democratic Democratic Republican 9–5
Hawaii Democratic Democratic Democratic 23–2 Democratic 45–6 Democratic Democratic Democratic 2–0
Idaho Republican Republican Republican 28–7 Republican 59–11 Republican Republican Republican 2–0
Illinois Democratic Democratic Democratic 40–19 Democratic 78–40 Democratic Democratic Democratic 14–3
Indiana Republican Republican Republican 40–10 Republican 70–30 Republican Republican Republican 7–2
Iowa Republican Republican Republican 34–16 Republican 64–36 Republican Republican Republican 4–0
Kansas Republican Democratic Republican 29–11 Republican 85–40 Republican Republican Republican 3–1
Kentucky Republican Democratic Republican 31–7 Republican 80–20 Republican Republican Republican 5–1
Louisiana Republican Republican Republican 27–12 Republican 71–33–1 Republican Republican Republican 5–1
Maine Democratic/ Republican (2nd District) Democratic Democratic 22–13 Democratic 81–68–2 Republican Independent[c] Democratic 2–0
Maryland Democratic Democratic Democratic 34–13 Democratic 102–39 Democratic Democratic Democratic 7–1
Massachusetts Democratic Democratic Democratic 36–4 Democratic 134–25–1 Democratic Democratic Democratic 9–0
Michigan Democratic Democratic Democratic 20–18 Democratic 56–54 Democratic Democratic Democratic 7–6
Minnesota Democratic (DFL) Democratic (DFL) DFL 34–33 DFL 70–64 Democratic (DFL) Democratic (DFL) Tied 4–4
Mississippi Republican Republican Republican 36–16 Republican 79–41–2 Republican Republican Republican 3–1
Missouri Republican Republican Republican 24–10 Republican 111–52 Republican Republican Republican 6–2
Montana Republican Republican Republican 34–16 Republican 68–32 Democratic Republican Republican 2–0
Nebraska Republican/ Democratic (2nd District) Republican Unicameral Nonpartisan Legislature[d]
(De facto Republican 32–17)
Republican Republican Republican 3–0
Nevada Democratic Republican Democratic 13–8 Democratic 28–14 Democratic Democratic Democratic 3–1
New Hampshire Democratic Republican Republican 14–10 Republican 201–196–3 Democratic Democratic Democratic 2–0
New Jersey Democratic Democratic Democratic 25–15 Democratic 52–28 Democratic Democratic Democratic 9–3
New Mexico Democratic Democratic Democratic 27–15 Democratic 45–25 Democratic Democratic Democratic 3–0
New York Democratic Democratic Democratic 42–21 Democratic 101–49 Democratic Democratic Democratic 16–10
North Carolina Republican Democratic Republican 30–20 Republican 72–48 Republican Republican Tied 7–7
North Dakota Republican Republican Republican 43–4 Republican 82–12 Republican Republican Republican 1–0
Ohio Republican Republican Republican 26–7 Republican 67–31 Democratic Republican Republican 10–5
Oklahoma Republican Republican Republican 40–8 Republican 81–20 Republican Republican Republican 5–0
Oregon Democratic Democratic Democratic 17–12–1 Democratic 35–25 Democratic Democratic Democratic 4–2
Pennsylvania Democratic Democratic Republican 28–22 Democratic 102–101 Democratic Democratic Democratic 9–8
Rhode Island Democratic Democratic Democratic 33–5 Democratic 65–10 Democratic Democratic Democratic 2–0
South Carolina Republican Republican Republican 30–16 Republican 88–36 Republican Republican Republican 6–1
South Dakota Republican Republican Republican 31–4 Republican 63–7 Republican Republican Republican 1–0
Tennessee Republican Republican Republican 27–6 Republican 75–24 Republican Republican Republican 8–1
Texas Republican Republican Republican 19–12 Republican 86–64 Republican Republican Republican 25–13
Utah Republican Republican Republican 21–8 Republican 61–14 Republican Republican Republican 4–0
Vermont Democratic Republican Democratic 22–7–1 Democratic 104–38–5–3 Independent[c] Democratic Democratic 1–0
Virginia Democratic Republican Democratic 21–19 Democratic 51-49 Democratic Democratic Democratic 6–5
Washington Democratic Democratic Democratic 29–20 Democratic 58–40 Democratic Democratic Democratic 8–2
West Virginia Republican Republican Republican 31–3 Republican 89–11 Independent[c] Republican Republican 2–0
Wisconsin Democratic Democratic Republican 22–11 Republican 64–35 Republican Democratic Republican 6–2
Wyoming Republican Republican Republican 28–2 Republican 57–5 Republican Republican Republican 1–0
Totals
Presidency
(after 2020 Election)
U.S. Senate
(after 2022 Elections)
U.S. House of
Representatives (after 2022 Elections)
Governorships
(after 2023 Elections)
Majority in
State Senate (after 2023 Elections)
Majority in
State House (after 2023 Elections)
Democratic 306–232 Democratic 51–49[c] Republican 222–213 Republican 27–23 Republican 29–20–1[b] Republican 27–21–1[b]
  1. ^ Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin.
  2. ^ a b c d A coalition of 19 Republicans, 2 Democrats, and 2 Independents make up the majority caucus in the Alaska House of Representatives, while a grand coalition of 9 Democrats and 8 Republicans make up the majority caucus in the Alaska Senate.
  3. ^ a b c d e Senators Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Angus King (I-ME), Joe Manchin (I-WV), and Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), are Independent Democrats and, as such, are included in Democrats' total number of Senators for the purposes of calculating partisan breakdown in this article.
  4. ^ While the Nebraska Legislature is technically non-partisan, the majority of its senators are de facto Republicans.

State government

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Governor Governors and Legislatures
US state governors by political party as of 27 October 2024
  Democratic
  Republican
  New Progressive
US state governments (governor and legislature) by party control as of 27 October 2024
  Democratic control
  Republican control
  Split control

Historical party strength

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The number of state legislatures controlled by each party.[10]

Year Democrats Republicans Split
1938 21 19 6
1940 21 17 8
1942 19 24 3
1944 19 24 3
1946 17 25 4
1948 19 16 11
1950 19 21 6
1952 16 26 4
1954 19 20 7
1956 22 19 5
1958 30 7 11
1960 27 15 6
1962 25 17 6
1964 32 6 10
1966 23 16 9
1968 20 20 8
1970 23 16 9
1972 26 16 7
1974 37 4 8
1976 35 4 10
1978 31 11 7
1980 29 15 5
1982 34 11 4
1984 26 11 12
1986 28 9 12
1988 29 8 12
1990 30 6 13
1992 25 8 16
1994 18 19 12
1996 20 18 11
1998 20 17 12
2000 16 18 15
2002 18 17 14
2003 16 21 12
2004 17 21 11
2005 20 20 9
2007 24 16 9
2008 23 15 12
2009 27 15 8
2010 27 15 8
2011 15 27 8
2012 15 29 6
2013 17 28 5
2014 17 28 5
2015 11 31 8
2016 11 31 8
2017 12 32 6
2018 13 32 5
2019 18 30 2
2020 19 29 2
2021 18 30 2
2022 17 30 3
2023 19 28 3
2024 20 28 2

The state governorships controlled by each party.[10]

Year Democrats Republicans Independent
1922 26 22
1923 27 21
1924 23 25
1926 20 28
1927 19 29
1928 16 32
1930 24 22 2
1931 26 20 2
1932 36 10 2
1934 37 9 2
1936 38 7 3
1937 39 6 3
1938 29 19
1940 28 20
1942 24 24
1943 22 26
1944 25 23
1946 23 25
1947 24 24
1948 28 20
1950 22 26
1952 18 30
1953 19 29
1954 27 21
1956 28 20
1958 35 15
1960 34 16
1962 34 16
1964 33 17
1966 25 25
1967 24 26
1968 19 31
1969 18 32
1970 29 21
1971 30 20
1972 31 19
1973 32 18
1974 36 13 1
1976 37 12 1
1978 32 18
1979 31 19
1980 27 23
1982 34 16
1983 35 15
1984 34 16
1986 26 24
1988 28 22
1989 29 21
1990 28 20 2
1992 30 18 2
1993 29 19 2
1994 19 30 1
1995 18 31 1
1996 17 32 1
1998 17 31 2
1999 18 30 2
2000 19 29 2
2001 21 27 2
2002 24 26
2004 22 28
2006 28 22
2008 29 21
2009 26 24
2010 26 23 1
2011 20 29 1
2012 20 29 1
2013 20 30
2014 21 29
2015 18 31 1
2016 18 31 1
2017 15 34 1
2018 16 33 1
2019 23 27
2020 24 26
2021 23 27
2022 22 28
2023 24 26
2024 23 27

State government full or split control, by party.

Year Democrats Republicans Split
1977 27 1 22
1978 27 1 22
1979 19 5 26
1980 18 5 27
1981 16 8 26
1982 16 8 26
1983 24 4 22
1984 24 4 22
1985 17 4 29
1986 17 4 29
1987 15 7 28
1988 14 6 30
1989 15 5 30
1990 16 5 29
1991 16 3 31
1992 15 3 32
1993 18 3 29
1994 16 4 30
1995 8 15 27
1996 6 14 30
1997 5 12 33
1998 5 13 32
1999 8 15 27
2000 9 16 25
2001 8 14 28
2002 9 12 29
2003 8 12 30
2004 8 12 30
2005 8 12 30
2006 8 12 30
2007 15 10 25
2008 14 10 26
2009 18 10 22
2010 17 10 23
2011 11 22 17
2012 11 24 15
2013 13 25 12
2014 13 24 13
2015 7 24 19
2016 7 23 20
2017 5 25 20
2018 7 25 18
2019 14 22 14
2020 15 21 14
2021 15 23 12
2022 14 23 13
2023 17 22 11
2024 17 23 10
Graphical summary

References

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  1. ^ "Republicans Exceed Expectations in 2010 State Legislative Elections". National Conference of State Legislatures. November 3, 2010. Retrieved 2014-12-03.
  2. ^ Hansen, Karen (December 2010). "Red Tide: December 2010 – A GOP wave washed over state legislatures on Election Day". National Conference of State Legislatures. Retrieved 2014-12-03.
  3. ^ Rakich, Nathaniel (November 17, 2022). "The Midterms Made State Governments Bluer". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 2022-11-17.
  4. ^ "Partisan Voter Index by State, 1994–2014" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. 2013. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2014-11-27. Retrieved 2014-12-23.
  5. ^ a b "Gallup Historical Trends: Party Affiliation". Gallup News. September 20, 2007. Retrieved 2020-05-14. In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat or an independent?
  6. ^ a b c "Democratic States Exceed Republican States by Four in 2018". Gallup.com. Gallup Inc. February 22, 2019. Retrieved 2019-10-20.
  7. ^ For example, for earlier 2014 registration figures, see: Blumenthal, Mark; Edwards-Levy, Ariel (May 27, 2014). "HUFFPOLLSTER: A State-By-State Guide To Party Registration". Huffington Post. Retrieved 2014-12-23..
  8. ^ "Partisan affiliations of registered voters". March 16, 2023. Retrieved 2023-03-16..
  9. ^ Winger, Richard (December 1, 2021). "Chart on Page Five". Ballot Access News. 37 (7): 3, 5.
  10. ^ a b "U.S. Census Bureau, The 2012 Statistical Abstract, The National Data Book, Elections: Gubernatorial and State Legislatures (see: Tables 416 and 418)" (PDF). U.S. Census Bureau. August 2011. pp. 260–261. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2017-03-22. Retrieved 2020-05-14.